The National Bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U. The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough to a peak is an expansion.According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in March 2001, ending a record-long expansion that began in 1991.
In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.
We also look at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see
Although these indicators are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process.
The committee's approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective.
To identify the onset of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee, tracks real GDP and nominal GDP for two consecutive quarters only.
uses a range of indicators including real GDP, employment and income. uses procedure that determines the dates of peaks and troughs mainly on the basis of employ men Cyclical unemployment occurs even when an economy is producing at a point on its production possibilities frontier. tend to occur when an economy experiences inflation.
We wait until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions.
In particular, in determining the date of a peak in activity, and thus the onset of recession, we wait until we are confident that, even in the event that activity begins to rise again immediately, it has declined enough to meet the criterion of depth.
real wealth, nominal wealth, and consumption spending fall.